Donald Trump might be the Xenophobe-in-Chief, but both political parties are moving to the right on immigration. This will have a negative impact on GDP, posing threats to everything from Social Security to housing.
Today I learned the numbers from Vox's Eric Levitz:
In an update to its 10-year economic forecast released February 7, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) reported that America's gross domestic product would be $7 trillion higher — and the federal deficit $1 trillion lower — than it had previously anticipated. This pleasant surprise came courtesy of the past year's surge in immigration: Due to that uptick in new arrivals, the US is now on track to have 5.2 million more workers by 2033 than previously projected. That will increase the amount of goods and services the economy can produce and improve the nation's ratio of laborers to retirees.Source: Vox.
We are looking at being $7 trillion more productive because of immigration. We could grow even more if we reform our immigration laws. Here's how this works. It's pretty direct. More prime-age immigrants means more workers. More workers means more tax money available for Social Security. And, because immigrants make up a disproportionate percentage of construction workers, more workers also means we can build more houses. Of course we also have to reform our zoning laws to allow more houses. More houses means less upward price pressure. It's a virtuous cycle.
Why are we willingly choosing to make ourselves $7 trillion poorer instead?
"Past projections fade,
Newcomers shape destiny,
Immigration's gift."
—h/t ChatGPT
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